Political pollsters say Donald Trump is the man to beat in the 2024 race for the White House.
Recent information from Emerson College Polling shows Trump with a narrow edge on President Joe Biden with 44 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Trump in 2024. Just 41 percent of registered voters polled said they would vote for Biden.
Ten percent of those responding said they would vote for someone else. Four percent are undecided and the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Biden is the hands-down favorite of Democrats to run in 2024 with 58 percent of respondents saying he should be on the ticket with 42 percent of likely Democrat primary voters saying someone else should be the nominee. Biden’s numbers are down since a June Emerson poll when 64 percent supported his bid for reelection.
The poll said Biden has significant support among minority voters in his party with 72 percent of Hispanic Democratic voters and 75 percent of Black Democratic voters thinking Biden should be the nominee in 2024. But 51 percent of White Democratic voters think someone else should be nominated. No other possible candidates were named in the poll.
Since an similar Emerson poll in November, support for Trump has increased by three percentage points.
At 43 percent, potential voters still view the economy as the most important issue for the 2024 race. Thirteen percent prioritized healthcare, while only 11 percent see immigration as the major issue. Ten percent say “threats to Democracy” is the primary issue, where only seven percent said crime.
The economy as the main priority dipped three points since November while healthcare jumped up seven points, the poll shows.
“Regionally, voters’ perception of the most important issue facing the nation varies. Voters in the South are most concerned about the economy, as 50 percent of voters rate it as the top issue facing the nation, compared to 33 percent of those in the Northeast, 45 percent of those in the Midwest, and 39 percent of those in the West. Voters in the Northeast are more concerned than those in the rest of the nation about ‘threats to democracy’ at 16 percent, compared to eight percent of those in the South and Midwest,” according to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
Along with his increasing lead over Biden, Trump is trouncing any and all potential Republican primary challengers.
According to the poll, 55 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump in the 2024 Republican primary. Only 29 percent would chose Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Other Republicans receiving support in the poll were former Vice President Mike Pence at six percent and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley at just three percent.
The poll, conducted Jan. 19-21, surveyed 1,015 registered voters.
The survey included results that some may find surprising.
“There is an age and educational divide within the Republican primary. Young Republican voters under 35 break for Trump over DeSantis, 73 percent to 13 percent, whereas college educated voters break for DeSantis over Trump 40 percent to 33 percent,” Kimball said.
DeSantis has not announced a run for the White House, but his percentage of likely supporters has increased by four percentage points since November.
According to The Hill, a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shows yields similar results for Trump.
The Hill reported that in “a hypothetical eight-way primary, 48 percent of Republican voters said they would back Trump for the nod, while 28 percent would support DeSantis.”
The Harris Poll reports a three-point bump in support for DeSantis since last month.
Pence came in third place at seven percent, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Haley tied for fourth place at just three percent support, according to The Hill.
The survey was conducted Jan. 18-19 and surveyed 2,050 registered voters.
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